Thursday, 8 December 2016

Worker-Free Products: A Year Later, The Daily Mail Catches Up With Whys






I never thought I'd say this, but here it comes: I was very pleased to see a headline on the front of the Daily Mail (6th December 2016). I hope it's at least the start of a bit of realism out there. 

In an earlier post (December 2015, hence the title) I warned that we are entering a huge technology-led industrial revolution, just as drastic as the one which began two and a half centuries ago. In fact I added an update referencing Mr Carney's own industry, banking.

The issue is serious and fundamental. It requires changing the way resources flow through our society, which will no longer be built round the kind of mass workforce so essential to the entrepreneurs of the past. Now an entrepreneur can make money without having to recruit a large workforce, by using technology and digital media -and maybe a small team of experts to run it. So they get to hang on to any money they make, not having to share it with a host of workers. If there is no workforce there are no wages out of which taxes and National Health contributions can be taken. How then will the essential services that look after us be paid for? And - if there are no workers earning wages, who will buy the products?

Not having large workforces, not needing factories, the new businesses have no need to be localised. They exist as supra-national networks, no longer belonging to this or that nation. Much as we'd like to catch them for a swingeing tax take, how do we do it? And who – as in which country - is going to do it?

If the restructuring of the way resources flow through our society is not taken on by well-intentioned politicians and activists backed up by a well-informed and critical electorate, it will be done by assholes (Click on the link for my explanation of that particular terminology). The future world will still need resources, whether physical as in ores, energy and crops, or infrastructure such as communications. Whoever controls those things controls everything else. You know what? I think the assholes are already on it.


This post is not meant to be an analysis. I already did that. I'm glad the Mail, in its inimitable way, has given me the opportunity to flag it up again. It's important. Go to the links. 

Here they are again:

http://whysgetsserious.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/about-economics.html


http://whysgetsserious.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/about-assholes.html













Friday, 1 July 2016

About Environment - Me and My Cars

I've never been very car proud – a good thing really because for most of my life I couldn't afford to be. Having to do my car shopping at the cheap end of the market brought me, though, some cars which I remember with affection. Like the two elderly Cortinas, one a Crusader model and one a 2litre Ghia – with real wood trim inside and two carburettors! A couple of times I bought cars from a friend who was good at doing them up: a Morris Marina Estate was one and the other was a huge, square, Austin Maxi. Both gave excellent service when we were raising a family and needed to ferry kids and kit around. A nippy little VW Polo cost me a hundred pounds when I bought it with 125,000 miles on the clock. It was fun to drive and served me well for a couple of years.

Nowadays I can afford to be a bit more choosy. As you might expect, I'm not tempted by the Jaguar end of the spectrum like many men of a certain age. In fact I'm bored by car-buying and have boiled it down to a very simple process. Having decided what I want – model, year, price etc - I look for it on the internet and when I find it I go and buy it. In Iceland I drive Skoda Octavias and have come to love them; my own car in England reflects this. There an Octavia is too big for my needs so I've been driving a 2006 Fabia for the last four years.

With my concern about carbon emmissions, a major criterion with me for choosing a car is fuel economy. Most of my mileage is made up of quite long trips, upwards of 100 miles. My 1.4litre diesel Fabia will get me 70mpg on these journeys. And yes – that's my calculation, not one generated by VW's bent software. (Just in case you didn't know, Skodas have VW engines.) How different from my old cars. I was lucky to get the miles per gallon out of the teens with them. I once heard someone say that the Cortina carburettor was a device for setting fire to liquid petrol.

Although better off now than I used to be, I'm never going to be able to be an early-uptaker when new car innovations come along. For the first time ever I feel a bit sad about this. I think electric cars are finally on the way. The new generation, powered by lithium ion batteries, perform well, have a realistically long travel distance per charge, and a realistically short charging time.

My lottery win car would be the latest electric Tesla. This is a high end, high performance luxury car with a price tag to match. It's not just a fast car with a long range and a short charging time - I think it has a bigger brain than I have. It has auto parking, energy reclaiming brakes and self-updating autopilot. Like any new product, it now needs the rich early uptakers to come in and buy it so that the manufacturer can invest in the next level of production, bringing in economies of scale and further research to bring prices down to a more everyday level.

Electric cars have for years been hyped as pollution free. But of course they aren't. It's just sloppy terminology – the sort of thing that means having to go into yet another tedious explanation when the pub blowhard hangs another one-line 'clincher' on you.

There are two sorts of pollution here. First, the one referred to by the over enthusiastic electric car promoters, is localised air pollution. In vehicle-filled urban environments we are inhaling the exhausts of all those internal combustion units around us: sulphur, carbon monoxide, particulates. It's not good for us. It's possible to reduce your exposure to this stuff by going a long way away from town to where there is less traffic, and so beyond the cloud of muck.

The second is atmospheric pollution, mainly CO2 emissions. As it affects the world's atmosphere and climate, there is no getting away from it. If cars are using electricity generated by a distant power station, the pollution is created there, but as it is the second sort, it has world wide consequences. Meantime in the city where the driving is done, there is no longer any localised, type 1, pollution because the exhausts are gone.

If by some magic all our electricity suddenly came from wind or wave or whatever then we'd have no local pollution in the city and no environmental pollution at the point of generation. But most of our electricity is still generated by mucky stuff, including coal. So, by driving an electric car are you saving your own urban neck in the short term but pushing out even nastier pollutants elsewhere which will have long term consequences for us all? Interestingly, I've just come across this in the journal of the Centre for Alternative Technology, which is relevant:

'Production of grid electricity with today's mix of generation equates to around 60 grams per kilometre of CO2 emissions [if used to charge an electric car]. In contrast there are around 230 grams per kilometre of CO2 emitted in total from ICE [internal combustion engine] cars from the extraction, transportation, production, storage and use of the fuel. That is a reduction in CO2 emissions of nearly four times even when the electricity comes from the grid.' (Paul Martin, Has the Time of Electric Cars Arrived?, in Clean Slate, no. 99, Spring 2016.)

I squirm a bit at quoting this, because Mr Martin gives no sources for his figures. Clean Slate is a respectable journal, but I feel very uncomfortable about using this kind of stuff in an argument without being able to answer the question 'Who sez?!' So, as one who has ranted about unsubstantiated claims in earlier blogs, I have to say it's really something I hope is true rather than something I assert is true. Only two cheers for Mr Martin then. (But see the 2019 update below.) Whether or not he's right, it remains important to continue with eliminating polluting methods of generation: 60gm per kg of driving is not good - it's just less bad than 230gm.

The thrust of many environmental arguments, though, has been that the proliferation of car use causes more than just pollution. There's the consumption of materials and energy in their manufacture, congestion in towns, noise, and the covering of the countryside with road surfaces for instance. For these reasons, some say, we should be using public transport instead, where space and resources are used more intensively and therefore more economically.

It's a tough sell. If we replace the word, 'car', with the phrase, 'independent personal transport', we can see why. Public transport can never be as convenient as the car in your drive which will take you and your luggage to that secluded holiday cottage or your parents' home late on a Friday night after work. There's the current culture too, where people express themselves through their cars (I don't), and one doesn't personally own public transport. Personal independent transport is too powerfully attractive ever to be willingly let go by many. Maybe the future will lie in a combination of low-impact, long lasting private vehicles with public transport for use in urban areas and for long distance travel. 

As a non-car-proud person I like the sharing and hire schemes which exist in many cities already. (https://www.car2go.com/US/en/#81296I for instance) I like this idea because it uses cars more intensively, thereby reducing the number and getting rid of the ' it's standing there, it's paid for, so I might as well use it', aspect of motoring, which sees us using car and fuel for unnecessary purposes. Also good is that I can choose a car fit for current purpose, say a pickup for a working trip, a people carrier for a family outing or a Smart car for local stuff - and there would be many non-motoring, public transport, days which would not leave me thinking I'm paying again for travel I've already paid for through my car expenses.

Maybe this is the crux of the matter. It seems there are many ways of getting oneself around but the car is the one which can be used to express ourselves, indicate status or give us pride of ownership. To the extent that I feel any of these needs, they are not served by car ownership (except, as a history buff, I'd enjoy having an old vintage job I could polish and look at once in a while without going far in it). But I accept that for many they are. 

But cultures can change: already those of us who live in cities with pedestrianised centres use rapid tram and bus services locally and most of us find public transport - planes and trains - more convenient than cars for very long journeys. And let's not forget bikes - very fashionable as I write: now there's an alternative that also provides a cool way of expressing yourself. 

As a footpath builder I know that the best way of keeping people away from where you don't want them  to walk is to make it very nice for them to walk where you do want them to go. So just maybe, as public transport, hire schemes and cycle routes improve, making it ever easier and more comfortable for us to move ourselves and our stuff about, more and more people will feel they can get through life without owning a car.



_____

Update May 2019:

Data which confirms Mr Martin's analysis can be seen here:
https://whysgetsserious.blogspot.com/2019/03/about-environment-one-liners-again.html



Environment 3: Assholes and the Environment


The reason for the title of this post is that it follows nicely on from both the earlier Environment posts and the post, 'Assholes'. In fact, the kind of behaviour described here was indicated in my 'asshole spectrum' graphic. 

So:

Today, 01/07/2016, we are hearing in the news that there are encouraging signs that the ozone hole over Antarctica might be starting to 'heal'.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29152028

In view of the current concern about CO2 in the atmosphere, I thought it might be informative to look back over the history of the ozone problem and see if there are lessons to be learnt. I was going to do that, but then I found this article which does it better than I could. Its references and sources look sound to me, and I've followed up some, but not all of them. Do check for yourself ...




Thursday, 4 February 2016

About Assholes

Assholes Will Always Be With Us

It used to be said that the poor will always be with us. Whether or not that’s true, it’s certainly true that assholes will. It is important to understand this, but not everyone does. There are people out there who think that assholes will automatically disappear if some religious or political blueprint is followed. But assholes seek ways of being assholes in whatever the system is.

 This can be seen from recent events (November 2013). For quite a few years now it’s been clear that assholes have been having fun in the banking industry, pulling in the loot and in the process destabilising the world for the rest of us; VW assholes have been caught doctoring emissions test results in their cars, using dodgy IT. We routinely castigate this kind of thing as bad capitalism.

But simplistic ideas of an instant cure through some kind of ‘people power’ run up against recent events in the British Co-op Society, for instance. Asshole Paul Flowers conned his way up through that left-wing people-governed organisation. He had already conned a church. As I write, news is breaking that a couple of Maoist collectivists have been running a slavery operation over the last 30 odd years.


We hear from time to time of violent and corrupt police officers. Of school teachers and care-workers abusing their young charges. Of nursing staff abusing patients. None of this should surprise us. It’s a no-brainer that certain kinds of assholes will see opportunities in certain jobs. Given the choice a predatory kiddie fiddler in search of a career will avoid lighthouse keeping in favour of something in the childcare sector. A violent control freak might well fantasize about strutting his stuff in a police or prison officer’s uniform. Narcissists and con artists will always want to disport themselves in politics, churches and trade unions.

Of course I’m not saying teachers, police, politicians and the rest are all bad people (as certain tribal chanters like to believe). Rather, those professions, staffed mostly by decent people, will always be a magnet for assholes, and vigilance will always be needed to fend them off. I'm recognising the ever present nuisance of assholes. And of the falsity of the idea that assholes are automatically avoided by jumping from one structure to another – from capitalism to collectivism, say, or atheism to religion.

Assholes to the left of us, assholes to the right of us

In Britain many politicians have been caught out in asshole behaviour, fiddling expenses and doing back door deals with business. MPs are under a cloud, have lost respect; the question is asked, is our parliamentary system doing its job, is it fit for purpose? Here is an opening for the assholes who believe they have the gift of knowing what's best for the rest of us to throw petrol on the fire. They peddle stuff which is untrue, but as it's for our own good, it's justified. See -




Then again, if you are a Conservative government which wants to cut spending on welfare, why not reclassify as welfare stuff that  never has been before and send out a page of dodgy stats in order to soften up public opinion? See -



And if you are a media proprietor wanting to take out the BBC why not spread false stories about it in your papers? (I love this!) -
http://www.buzzfeed.com/tomphillips/no-the-bbc-didnt-put-up-its-staff-in-a-279-a-night-hotel-for#.apv4aEb3z
Here's a more dignified analysis -



My Asshole Chart

The Asshole Spectrum

There are degrees of assholeness. As well as the higher order crooks, many of us at times operate as assholes in small but pervasive ways. How many of us have on the one hand railed at tax dodging by multinationals and on the other hand paid cash to a tradesman to avoid vat? While at the same time banging on about 'Save the (tax funded) NHS'? That’s hypocrisy = small scale assholeness.

So assholeness can be seen as a spectrum. At one end is the non-asshole, who tries to figure out what is the right thing and tries to do it. The non-asshole will take an action or support a cause because it is the right thing to do. In real life probably few of us would qualify to occupy this extreme of the spectrum all of the time. At the other end is the total asshole, who will take an action or support a cause solely because it offers personal gain.

As someone who is concerned about carbon in our atmosphere let me offer, as an example, this schematic on that issue:




The Politicians we Deserve

'The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing' - Edmund Burke (1729 – 1797)

'If you don't vote you don't count. It's only a century ago that none of us had the right to vote and we don't want to go back to that route … Go to Town Hall meetings and give them fucking hell.'( Johnny Rotten, Sex Pistol, aka John Lydon, at the Cheltenham Literary Festival 2014)

Mr Rotten was speaking in response to the well known bletherings of Russell Brand, advocate of not voting. For the full story see

Mr Brand seems not to know that many people have been following his advice for a long time and the consequences are not good. In local and European elections people take his advice in droves.

If you are a chancer who wants easy money, you can put yourself up for Europe, get support and votes from a few cronies – you won't need many because you won't have many to beat - and you're in. Once in you don't have to do much except claim your expenses because no-one's checking on you. When those people who didn't vote get fed up with what you are letting happen, or read a think-piece in a tabloid, they won't come for you or set up a rival candidate: they'll whinge in the pub about Europe being a bad thing.

If you are a crook you can get power within your local council by coercing a few weaker people to vote you on to it. It won't take many because the numbers voting overall are very small. For more on this see my post, 'The Postal Vote, I toldYou So'.

These things don't happen because we are the helpless victims of tyranny.They happen because we can't be arsed to get off our butts to exercise our power over those who claim to represent us.

Cleaning Out the Closet

At the beginning I said that assholes will always be with us. Nor are they a new phenomenon, emerging from evil modernity. We only have to think of Horatio Bottomley, fraudster and founder of the Financial Times and owner of the magazine John Bull to realise that dodgy people have always wanted to control media and information. Anthony Trollope's 1875 novel, The Way We Live Now, satirised financial corruption of a sort we would find very recognisable today.

What's new is the fact that the bad behaviour is being exposed and challenged more thoroughly than before, and that is a very good thing. To an as yet small extent, the crap is being laid out before us and those responsible for it are being called to answer for it. Well, sort of. Because the assholes are resisting all the way, as you'd expect. After all they're not going to say, 'Fair cop guv', are they? So for instance the government has started going soft on continued scrutiny of the banking sector.

Well, we vote for the government. We have MPs. If we don't like what they're doing we have the power to make them do what we want or to find someone who will. But we won't achieve that by going out and voting once in five years or by sitting on our butts and not voting at all. It requires ongoing active participation by the electorate, writing to let MPs know our views, joining political parties, attending local council meetings, publicising abuses and grievances, standing for local council election and using the Freedom of Information Act - which the assholes are trying to scupper as I write. Now there's something to give them a hard time about – and somebody is, of whom more later.


There's no such thing as a world where all will be well for ever if you just mind your own business. Freedom, safety and justice are things which don't occur in nature. They have to be created, and once created they have to be maintained. In my view this is best done where there is a culture of openness supported by law which makes it harder for assholes to operate and easier for us to winkle them out. And where a vigilant and well informed electorate keeps a careful eye on the performance of those whom they place in positions of power.

We can't achieve anything through ill-informed saloon bar chuntering. And it's no good banging on to the politicians and media if you don't know what you're talking about, or if your views are based on false information. It's easy for that to happen because a lot of what purports to be information is, as I say, intended to mislead.

I'm relieved to find that that help is at hand:-

I like this website: Full Fact ,which checks on the information and stats used by news media and politicians to see if they're telling porkies. Unlike that media and those politicians they explain their reasoning and quote sources of information which are checkable. 


I'm a geek for logical reasoning and scientific method, and so a hero of mine is Ben Goldacre, a doctor. He pursues publishers of dodgy research papers, journalistic health scare mongers, snake oil peddlers, big pharma and bad and lazy research in general. He is also very entertaining. Here he is on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4MhbkWJzKk

And here's his website:
http://www.badscience.net/

The satirical magazine, Private Eye is not just that: it's a place where you can find great, honest, sceptical investigative journalism. Its in-depth special reports on major topics are required reading. Check it out if you haven't already at



 Somebody's been thinking about how we, the ordinary electors, can make politicians take more serious note of our views. (One of their campaigns is about Freedom of Information, mentioned above.) Click here to find them: 38 Degrees,

And to finish with some comedy: Richard Herring's observations about how non-voters in Euro elections are the reason for Nazis becoming MEPs are painfully funny in his Hitler Mustache routine. You can see the whole half hour here, or to find the bit about voter apathy go to around the 18th minute:





Update, Jan 3rd 2017 - check out my post environment-3-assholes-and-environment for an account of asshole interference in the ozone hole issue in the recent past.

Update October 2021 - These active and effective non-assholes deserve all the support we can give them: https://goodlawproject.org/